Page 24 - Respond 2018 Magazine

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Egypt faces water

insecurity as Ethiopian

mega-dam rumours swirl

By Aya Nader in Cairo

Farmers along the lower Nile have little information to guide them as upriver barrage
threatens to compound the impacts of global warming

“The land has become very dry,” observes Mahmoud Abo professor of agricultural development at Ain Shams University.
Khokha, a farmer from Al Monofeyya governorate, in Egypt’s “Adding the pressure of a dam puts Egypt on the verge of
Nile delta. “Drought is no longer predictable; it used to hit catastrophe. Soon enough we won’t [find food to] eat.”
a certain 15 winter days. The whole year’s crops could be
destroyed because of one week’s drought.” The challenges for farmers are myriad: new diseases and
insects, unprecedented humidity, rising seas contaminating
Like most farmers round here, he blames Ethiopia. They are groundwater with salt. Indeed, when Abo Khokha tried
under the impression that a massive hydropower dam being pumping underground water to make up for reduced river
built upriver is already affecting their water supply. flow, he found only half the usual volume, with a higher level
of salinity.
In fact, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is only half
way to completion. In July, officials denied the reservoir had A study recently published in Nature found that climate
started filling after satellite photos circulated online of a change is bringing greater variability in the Nile River flow
lake behind the dam, which they said was simply the result this century compared to the last. In the Nile’s seven-year
of flooding. cycle of flood and drought, the former is becoming heavier,
and the latter more extreme.
The water scarcity farmers have experienced to date has
other causes: climate change and the demands of a growing Egypt’s five million feddans (21,000 square kilometres)
population. of crops consume more than 85% of the country’s share
of Nile water. With an annual supply of 600 cubic metres
But during the 5-15 years it is expected to take to fill the per person, the country is approaching the UN’s “absolute
reservoir behind the 1,800 metre-wide barrage, the Nile’s water scarcity” threshold, as the population closes in on 100
fresh water flow to Egypt may be cut by up to 25%. million. Water is a sensitive subject.

“Nobody is telling farmers how to mitigate and adapt to Although Ethiopia claims to have taken climate change into
climate change,” says Magda Ghoneim, a socio-economist and consideration in the dam’s design, the government did
everything at the same time: construction and civil works,
financing, and social and environmental impact studies,
explains Emanuele Fantini, a researcher at IHE Delft Institute
for Water Education. “So by the time these studies are
concluded, we are already in front of the fait accompli”.

Grand Ethiopian Building was under way when the governments of Ethiopia,
Renaissance Dam Egypt and Sudan – sandwiched between the two – in 2016
agreed to commission an independent study from Artelia,
a French consultancy. “We are not sure if and when the
results will be made public,” says Fantini. “They should be
made public so that the accuracy can be checked by the
international scientific community”.

So far, though, there has been little attempt to explain the
risks to those at the mercy of the weather and geopolitics.