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If successful, that will broadly see leading developed governments developing focus
agree to cut carbon polluton by around 30% over the next 15 years, Stll, it’s easy to get carried away with a few quarterly results. Coal
and top emerging economies target a gradual slowdown of their use is growing fast in non-OECD countries, rising by nearly 400%
emissions – a trajectory Campanale points out is not one forecast by since 1990.
the oil majors.
Demand may be falling in Europe and the US due to tghtening
Already, there are signs of more of the CTI’s predictons bearing fruit. environmental and emission standards but in China, India, Indonesia
Shell’s CEO took major shareholders to the tennis at Wimbledon and the Philippines there are plans for hundreds more coal plants.
to reassure them their investments are safe, despite what many That does not invalidate the stranded assets theory, but it does
analysts believe is the company’s high-risk Arctc venture.
highlight the urgency for developing countries to receive help
Weeks later, it was revealed oil majors had writen of $200 billion of sourcing cleaner forms of energy over the next decade.
new projects due to plummetng prices.
New copies of the CTI’s work are to be published in several languages
Elsewhere, Peabody coal posted $1 billion second quarter losses – including Chinese and Japanese – in a bid to widen the debate to
while Seaborne thermal coal giant Glencore looks set to announce a South East Asia and the Far East.
“calamitous” proft slump this week.
Emerging economies with a lust for high growth may prove tougher
Mackenzie is full of praise for the quality of the analysis CTI has nuts to crack, but Campanale’s journey over the past two decades
ofered but is keen to observe the wide range of factors afectng has demonstrated to him that provided with credible and clearly
fossil fuels – and partcularly coal. presented informaton, shareholders can move mountains.
“It’s not a pure carbon story. It’s also a SOx, NOx and mercury story.” “The divest movement has mobilised thousands of litle endowments
Had they tried this 5 years ago “it probably wouldn’t have worked,” and charites to challenge fund managers who have to go back and
he argues. ask questons of companies,” he says.
Has the analysis changed the City? Mackenzie, Wilkins and Herron “They have never come into the climate debate before but now
are unwilling to go that far, but all say in terms of awareness raising they’re coming in on the side of the right outcome… that being
it has propelled stranded assets into boardrooms previously deaf to an orderly [low carbon] transiton because it’s the right thing for
these concerns. policyholders.
“There is no fduciary duty to make the planet uninhabitable.”

Photo: © Annete Bernhardt | www.fickr.com

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